(i美股）德意志银行DWS(中国)基金经理人@花生余 教师3月18日在雪球财经i美股宣布全球市场一周回忆，表示仍然坚持对目前股市 “持有”和“看涨”的态度，它具有市场“甘美点”(sweet spot)的最好特性。
“为什么会这样，格雷格？你对你任务十年以上的这家公司并没有停止片面地理解，而你兴致勃勃地将一张又一张的奖金支票带回家。高盛在其143年的历史上，不时费事不时，但它总能逐一转危为安——次要是由于它挑选将本人的利益置于客户的利益之上。史密斯揭发的形式，实在任何人都能发掘到，它就深藏在美国证券买卖委员会和法庭的纪录中。假如史密斯在跨入高盛门槛前，能应用他在斯坦福大学学到的学问去考察一番高盛的实质，他就不会像如今这样悲哀。”......
此外，美联储对19家大型银行的压力测试完美完毕。这次测试加强了美国大银行的决心，并证实了美国银行体系的弱小实力。美联储经过对测试后果停止剖析，肯定这19家大型银行即便在最严峻的情形下，并施行了目条件出的向股东返还资本的方案，其一级中心资本充分率均匀将到达6.2％（远高于5％的目的）。测试后果将使这19家大型银行中的15家的返还资本方案失掉同意，而JP摩根股价一周内降落了8.7％。
总的来说，我仍然坚持对目前股市 “持有”和“看涨”的态度，它具有市场“甘美点”(sweet spot)的最好特性：过度的经济增加，较低的通货收缩率，宽松的经济政策，投资缺乏的散户和机构投资者。
Across the Ocean, the politician’s shows have entered into the center stage of episodes. In what s being called the biggest Chinese political scandal in years, Bo Xilai, the Communist Party secretary in Chongqing, was axed after Premier Wen s criticism, according to the headline of Business Week Magazine. Mr. Bo s sudden departure has inspired the white-hot debate on the Sina weibo over whether his political demise is simply personal or also means the end of the "Chongqing model" of more equal growth that he championed. In HK, we had a Television debate among HK chief executive candidates. Mr. Leung Chun-ying maintained his lead in polls after pledging to narrow a wealth gap, as rival Henry Tang’s popularity dropped after he admitted knowing about a basement built without planning permission at a property owned by his wife. In October, he confirmed having an affair and said his wife had forgiven him. Public opinion is starting to weigh on the contest after Premier Wen said March 14 that the city “can elect a chief executive who is supported by the majority of the people.” That being said, I am not a fan of politics, but partially the history is made up by politics and politicians. The current political shows in this land can be well described by a paragraph in the book of “The Lost of Good Hell”, which was written by the famous “New Culture Campaign” leader and Chinese author in 1920s, Mr. Lu Xun --- [Quote] “the history of China is the history of a gang of reactionary guy to replace another gang. Their dictatorship to the people is a greater and deeper misery. At the beginning of each revolution, the goal is always to overthrow the old ruling class, and without exception, they use the good-looking logo and attractive sermon to confuse people and use the power of the people to win their right to rule. Once grabbed the emperor s throne underpinned by the flesh and blood of the people, immediately they turn the country into the home world, treating the people like slavery. Thus, Hell is still Hell!
However, I think the selloff in bonds does raise the question of how much further it can go and when & how it becomes a threat to risk assets. The week’s selloff means that 2014 FFFF implied rates are now somewhat higher than before Fed provided its low through 2014 guidance in January. Question is what would make the market raise bond yield forecast for this year? I think we need to see significantly stronger growth, inflation, and/or inflation expectations, i.e. if monthly US NFP were to rise to 300K or surveys to reveal that economic agents become worried about inflation, then the market will start expecting Fed to begin normalizing rates next year already. Then UST yields would be headed to 3%. Given the political event risk around the massive fiscal tightening currently on the books for 2013, Fed is not likely to signal an early exit from monetary easing. Moreover, the MTD rise in USD and its de-linking from the risky assets raises the issue whether there is again a flight to quality into the safe currency of the world. Again, it is a “NO” as the higher USD reflects a view that there is clearer differentiation of where central banks are in their monetary easing cycle. In a nutshell, the market has come to see Fed is done with QE, Europe still halfway in its LTROs, and Japan only now seriously considering starting the fight against its deflation.
Looking forward, combined central bank action has provided sufficient liquidity support to reduce ST risks within the banking sector, but structural macroeconomic challenges remain. In the absence of ST wealth destruction risks, I think we are shifting back to a structural reallocation of portfolios towards EMs. As discussed in my last diaries, what might end the bull run? --- If oil prices surge above $140/barrel within a short period, or if bond yields spike to over 3.5%. Neither is going to happen any time soon. Oil prices have barely budged in the face of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s near-bellicose statements. As for bonds, Fed’s commitment to ZIRP until 2014 will serve as a key anchor suppressing the long end of the curve. Therefore, the mini “melt-up” in stocks may continue for a while. Such a mild +Ve outlook was supported several macro backdrop, including --- 1) an improving US economy, which is evidenced by strengthening private-sector payroll growth (233K vs. 225 expt.), increasing retail sales (0.9% vs. 0.7% expt.) and an upward revision in income gains (1.8%); 2) the monetary easing in Europe, with ECB B/S shooting up by nearly 60% in nine months; 3) currency intervention BoJ to weaken JPY, which is a de facto QE program. Fundamentally, according to Morgan Stanley, with 68% and 66% of companies have reported in MSCI APxJ and EM, results have missed 4Q11 consensus estimates by 5% and 7%, respectively. I think the miss of earnings is more due to the margin erosion as revenues for EM and APxJ have beaten consensus by 3% and 2%, respectively, with 61% of the EM companies (59% for APxJ) have reported in-line revenues. To sum up, I remain HOLD and positive over the current investment environment, which is best characterized as a “sweet spot”, supported by the modest economic growth, low inflation, hyper-simulative policy and genuinely under-invested retail and institutional investors.
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